| Title & description | Year | Publication theme | Download as PDF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Optimising Disaster Resilience: protecting society through building codes and infrastructure This report, supported by AXA XL, explores the efficacy of pre-disaster adaptation in the United States, by FEMA and through building codes, concluding that both help to materially reduce damage. |
2024 | Natural Catastrophe and Climate | Download |
| A Risk Analysis Retrospective on the 2015 Paris Attacks Impact analysis conducted in the wake of the November 2015 Paris Attacks, based on contemporary modelling done by the Centre for Risk Studies. An October 2016 revision examines the real-world economic damage and changing threat landscape in the West. |
2016 | Geopolitics and Security | Download |
| A Taxonomy of Threats for Complex Risk Management A framework for systemic assessment of macro-catastrophes, including a taxonomy of macro-catastrophe threats that have the potential to cause damage and disruption to social and economic systems in the modern globalised world. |
2014 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| Cambridge Global Risk Index 2020 The research by the Centre for Risk Studies is unique in making an annual qualification of the potential GDP impact of unpredictable shocks on the world’s most prominent cities. The 2020 update to the Global Risk Index sees a uniform rise in GDP@Risk across all the 279 cities that make up the index and more significant increases in risk for urban centres. |
2020 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| Cambridge Global Risk Index 2019: Executive Summary The 2019 update of the Cambridge Global Risk Index. The Global Risk Index compiles the impacts of 22 types of threats into a single, annual measurement of economic loss. Cyber risk has seen a rise from seventh to sixth place among global threats in this year’s Index. |
2019 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| Cambridge Global Risk Index 2018: Executive Summary This is the 2018 update of the Cambridge Global Risk Index. The Global Risk Index compiles the impacts of 22 types of threats into a single, annual measurement of economic loss. Interstate conflict, belong to the geopolitical and security threat class, is the only risk of the 22 that has increased systemically between 2017 and 2018. |
2018 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| Cambridge Global Risk Index 2018: Methodology This working paper documents the methodology used for the Cambridge Global Risk Index 2018 Executive Summary analysis. It describes how cities were selected, GDP projections, and the updated resilience ratings. It outlines the Catastronomics methodology and how GDP@Risk is calculated. |
2018 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| Cambridge Global Risk Index 2017: Executive Summary 2017 launch of the Cambridge Global Risk Index, which analyses the exposure to shocks of the global economy against a calculated baseline and provides an overview of risk for the world’s economy for the next 10 years. |
2017 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| Cambridge Taxonomy of Business Risks This report presents the business risk taxonomy developed as part of the Cambridge Risk Framework and describes the methodology used. This taxonomy describes the entire threat landscape corporates face, enabling identification of emerging risks and creating a common language for communicating risks. |
2019 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| Challenges and Solutions for Enterprise Exposure Management This report is a companion guide to the Multi-line Insurance Exposure Management Data Definitions document v1.0. It outlines the scenarios used to validate the Data Definitions Document. |
2018 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| China-Japan Conflict Stress Test Scenario A catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme conflict in Southeast Asia for use in business and policy-making. |
2014 | Geopolitics and Security | Download |
| CRS RMS Cyber Risk Landscape 2017 The cyber risk landscape is changing rapidly. We summarise the latest trends and outlooks for cyber risk in information technology systems and cyber-physical attacks. |
2017 | Technology and Space | Download |
| Cyber Exposure Data Schema (v1.0) Published as a standard data schema for managing cyber exposures, incorporating feedback from previous consultation rounds and acknowledgements of contributors. |
2016 | Technology and Space | Download |
| Cyber Exposure Data Schema (v0.9) Third consultation document for the development of a standard data schema for managing cyber exposures, incorporating feedback from previous consultation rounds. |
2015 | Technology and Space | Download |
| Cyber Exposure Data Schema (v0.5) Second consultation document to develop a standard data schema for managing cyber exposures. Includes market practice review. |
2015 | Technology and Space | Download |
| Cyber Exposure Data Schema (v0.1) Principles First consultation document on the principles for developing a standard data schema for managing cyber exposures. |
2015 | Technology and Space | Download |
| Cyber Risk Outlook 2019 Ten key trends in cyber risk of importance to risk managers summarising the Centre’s latest research on cyber risk. |
2019 | Technology and Space | Download |
| Cyber Risk Outlook 2018 This report explores the rapidly changing cyber landscape, presenting the Centre’s latest research on cyber risk including shifting trends in the risk landscape, management of emerging cyber threats, trends in cyber loss processes, and the current and future state of cyber insurance markets. |
2018 | Technology and Space | Download |
| Cyber Security Cost Effectiveness for Business Risk Reduction This report explores a cyber risk management modelling framework that would allow corporates to estimate their risk exposure to three cyber events: ransomware attack, data breach and cloud outage. |
2022 | Technology and Space | Download |
| Cyber Terrorism: Assessment of the Threat to Insurance An assessment of the current status and future shape of the cyber terrorist threat to the UK Mainland and economy. |
2017 | Geopolitics and Security | Download |
| Cyber Threat Monograph A framework for classifying cyber threat, and compiled a database of significant past attacks, to inform evolving business risk. We examine approaches to measuring vulnerabilities to attacks and industry sector and geographic variations. |
2013 | Technology and Space | Download |
| CyRiM Scenario: Bashe Attack
In this report’s scenario, the ransomware attack is launched through an infected email, which once opened is forwarded to all contacts and within 24 hours encrypts all data on 30 million devices worldwide. |
2019 | Technology and Space | Download |
| Disaster Recovery Case Study: Hurricane Katrina This case study seeks to understand and quantify the key controls on the speed and quality of disaster recovery, including the role of insurance. |
2018 | Natural Catastrophe and Climate | Download |
| Disaster Recovery Case Study: Superstorm Sandy This case study seeks to understand and quantify the key controls on the speed and quality of disaster recovery, including the role of insurance. |
2018 | Natural Catastrophe and Climate | Download |
| Developing Scenarios for Disaster Risk Reduction The report provides an accessible guide to scenario analysis and applications for the DRR community, to facilitate the understanding, communication, management, and mitigation of disaster risks. |
2020 | Natural Catastrophe and Climate | Download |
| Developing Scenarios for the Insurance Industry The report outlines best practices for scenario analysis within the insurance community, and provides a practical framework to assist practitioners engaging with risk scenario development. |
2020 | Finance, Economics and Trade | Download |
| Dollar Deposed Financial Catastrophe Stress Test Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme financial catastrophe. This scenario sees the rapid development of the Chinese domestic economy destabilizes the value of the dollar. |
2015 | Finance, Economics and Trade | Download |
| Ebola Contingency Scenario A ‘contingency’ scenario for the economic impact of possible Ebola outbreaks in the United States and Europe, based on upper bounds of published epidemiological projections from the West Africa epidemic of 2014. This scenario is offered as a contribution to improving business resilience. |
2014 | Health and Humanity | Download |
| Eurozone Meltdown Financial Catastrophe Street Test Catastrophe stress test of risks posed by a plausible but extreme financial catastrophe. The sudden exit of Italy from the Eurozone triggers a cascade of sovereign debt defaults in vulnerable European states. |
2015 | Finance, Economics and Trade | Download |
| Freeze This document presents a profile of the macro-catastrophe threat type ‘Freeze’. |
2012 | Natural Catastrophe and Climate | Download |
| Geopolitical Conflict Threat Monograph A review of the drivers of wars between nation states in the wider context of the balance of power within the international system. This covers three main strands: political ambitions, economic motives and ideological differences. |
2013 | Geopolitics and Security | Download |
| Global Property Crash Stress Test Scenario Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme global property crash financial catastrophe. A sudden loss of confidence in the boom markets of South East Asia triggers a housing market collapse that impacts mortgage and non-mortgage assets worldwide. |
2015 | Finance, Economics and Trade | Download |
| Helios Solar Storm Scenario Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme space weather event. This explores of the economic and business impacts of a significant geomagnetic disturbance that destroys electricity grid infrastructure (extra high voltage transformers) in the Northern hemisphere. |
2016 | Technology and Space | Download |
| High Inflation World Financial Catastrophe Stress Test Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme financial catastrophe. Ecological and political pressures lead to a sudden shock to global food and oil supplies causing prices to spiral uncontrollably worldwide. |
2015 | Finance, Economics and Trade | Download |
| Human Pandemic Threat Monograph A review of human pandemics: infectious disease outbreaks that spread internationally and cause death and illness in human populations, including influenza pandemics, emerging infectious diseases and re-emergent disease epidemics. |
2013 | Health and Humanity | Download |
| Impacts of Severe Natural Catastrophes on Financial Markets This report explores the potential for very large natural catastrophes to trigger market shocks and subsequent economic downturns that have an impact on an insurance company’s balance sheet. |
2018 | Natural catastrophe and climate | Download |
| Integrated Infrastructure: Cyber Resiliency in Society Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme cyber attack against the UK power distribution system in the Southeast, causing rolling and unpredictable power outages in and around London. |
2016 | Technology and Space | Download |
| Lloyd’s Business Blackout Scenario Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme cyber attack on the US electricity grid causing a major power outage in the Northeastern United States, for Lloyd’s. |
2015 | Technology and Space | Download |
| Managing Cyber Insurance Accumulation Risk 2016 A framework for setting risk appetite and evaluating PML scenarios in cyber insurance risk. The report describes five cyber loss processes and scenarios for managing accumulation risk. |
2016 | Technology and Space | Download |
| Millennial Uprising Social Unrest Stress Test Scenario Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme social uprising, fuelled by youth unemployment. This captures the changing nature of social unrest informed by the Arab Spring and Occupy Wall Street. |
2014 | Geopolitics and Security | Download |
| Mitigating Ransomware Risk: Determining Optimal Strategies for Business
How ransomware attacks can be a threat to organisations. We analyse a novel dataset of ransomware victim companies and extract statistics about ransom demands and payments, sector, country of origin and business. |
2022 | Technology and space | Download |
| Multiline Data Schema Consultation Document Phase One V0.9 Consultation document V0.9 on the Phase One classes of insurance: marine, aviation, energy and casualty. This document populates the core dictionaries associated with each schema and builds upon the feedback received from the V0.5 consultation document. We welcome feedback from the wider community as we continue to develop the schema. |
2017 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| Multiline Data Schema Consultation Document Phase Two V0.9 This report was produced as part of the Global Exposure Accumulation and Clash (GEAC) Project, in collaboration with RMS. |
2018 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| Multiline Data Schema Consultation Document Phase Three V0.9 This report was produced as part of the Global Exposure Accumulation and Clash (GEAC) Project, in collaboration with RMS. |
2018 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| Multiline Data Schema Consultation Document Phase One V0.5 Consultation document V0.5 of the initial document. This update focuses on marine, aviation, energy and casualty classes of insurance. The document outlines the core dictionaries associated with each schema. We hope to collect feedback from the wider community as we continue to populate and develop the schema. |
2017 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| Multiline Data Schema Consultation Document Phase Two V0.5 This consultation document builds on the V0.1 research, and focuses on agriculture, trade credit, surety, specialised underwriting classes, life and health. The document outlines the core dictionaries associated with each schema. We hope to collect feedback from the wider community as we continue to populate and develop the schema. |
2018 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| Multiline Data Schema Consultation Document Phase One V0.1 Consultation document for the development of a data schema to capture insured exposure in the main lines of insurance business. V0.1 describes the objectives and principles of the initiative. |
2017 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| Multiline Insurance Exposure Management Data Definitions Document v1.0 This is the first version of a multi-line data definitions document to ensure the consistent assessment of exposure across the main classes of insurance business. |
2018 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| Multi-Threat Risk Analysis and Insurance Growth Opportunities Report As part of the Cambridge Global Risk Framework, this report considers the risks that cities face, how city risks relate to insurance penetration levels, and how insurance products can be aligned with city risk profiles and identify insurance growth opportunities. |
2017 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| Optimising Disaster Recovery: The role of insurance capital in improving economic resilience This report explores the controls on natural disaster recovery through detailed analysis of global disaster case studies. It aims to understand the role of insurance in affecting recovery outcomes and building resilience. |
2020 | Natural catastrophe and climate | Download |
| Organised Crime – Piracy Profile of the macro-catastrophe threat type ‘Organised Crime – Piracy’. |
2012 | Geopolitics and Security | Download |
| Risk Management for the Consumer Sectors The report, written in collaboration with IRM, analyses impacts to the consumer sector and supply chains across six illustrative stress tests, including: trade dispute, geopolitical conflict, cyber attack, natural catastrophe, pandemic, and accelerated changes from the equal payment movement. |
2021 | Finance, Economics and Trade | Download |
| Risk Management Perspectives of Global Corporations This report is produced as part of the Centre’s research track on corporate risk profiling. The focus and intention of this report is to better understand the perspectives and practices of risk management at global corporations. |
2018 | Finance, Economics and Trade | Download |
| São Paulo Virus Pandemic Stress Test Scenario Catastrophe stress test scenario of an extreme but plausible pandemic. Infectious diseases continue to pose a major societal threat. |
2014 | Health and Humanity | Download |
| Scenario Applications: Stress Testing Companies in the Energy Value Chain The report, written in collaboration with IRM, analyses the impacts to all members of the energy value chain across three diverse risk scenarios. |
2019 | Finance, Economics and Trade | Download |
| Shen Attack: Cyber Risk in Asia Pacific Ports What would the impact be on the global economy and insurers if several ports in Asia-Pacific were closed as a result of a cyber-attack? This report explores the impact of a hypothetical computer virus which closes up to 15 ports in Asia. Economic losses from closures and disruption range from $40.8 billion in the least severe scenario variant to $109.8 billion in the most extreme. |
2019 | Technology and Space | Download |
| Social Unrest This document presents a profile of the macro-catastrophe threat type ‘Social Unrest’. |
2013 | Geopolitics and Security | Download |
| Steering the Course: An Emerging Risk Report from Lloyd’s Innovation The report presents an alternative model to help insurers understand the ‘tail risk’ of potential losses they might experience in their marine portfolio. This analysis helps marine underwriters improve their estimation of the capital they need to support this important line of insurance business. |
2018 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| Sybil Logic Bomb Cyber Catastrophe Stress Test Scenario Catastrophe stress test scenario of a plausible but extreme cyber event that quantifies systemic risk of commercial digital infrastructure. Identifies “Systemically Important Technology Enterprises”, SITEs, as key to understanding systemic cyber vulnerability. |
2014 | Technology and Space | Download |
| Systemic Risk – Systemic Solutions for an Increasingly Interconnected World This report examines the nature of ‘systemic risk’, identifying a Global Risk Nexus of 10 key systemic risks, from climate change to biodiversity loss and natural disasters, through antimicrobial resistance, human and agricultural pandemics, to cyber risk and global governance failure, and ultimately global economic and financial crises. |
2021 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| Unhedgeable Risk: How Climate Change Sentiment Impacts Investment Catastrophe stress test scenarios of plausible but extreme sentiment shocks in financial markets, in reaction to climate change. |
2015 | Natural Catastrophe and Climate | Download |
| Using real world scenarios to improve the resilience of private investment portfolios This report explores how a scenario stress testing approach can provide a complementary tool that helps assessing and confronting these uncertainties and therefore contributing towards the viability of a portfolio. |
2022 | Finance, economics and trade | Download |
| World Cities Risk 2025: Part One – Overview and Results Main report providing an overview of the World City Risk 2025 analysis and key results. It describes the outline methodology and key principles, results and conclusions, validation and comparison with other studies, and some sensitivity studies for mitigating risk and potential for climate change to increase catastrophe risk. |
2015 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| World Cities Risk 2025: Part Two – Methodology This working paper documents the methodology used for the World City Risk 2025 analysis. It describes how cities were selected, GDP projections, and vulnerability and resilience assessed. It outlines the Catastronomics methodology and how the risk atlas was compiled. |
2015 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| World City Risk 2025: Executive Summary Catastrophe stress test scenarios of plausible but extreme sentiment shocks in financial markets, in reaction to climate change. |
2015 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| World Cities Risk 2025: Atlas Online maps of World City Risk 2025, containing interactive city data, threat hazard mapping, and results for the world’s most important 301 cities. |
2014 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
| World Cities Risk 2025: Analysis An overview slide presentation of the context, methodology and results from the World City Risk 2025 project. |
2014 | Managing Multi-threat | Download |
Managing multi-threat
Assessing risk to the global economy and industry across diverse threat classes and types.
Finance, economics and trade
Considering the impacts of threat types in the finance, economics and trade class, including market crashes and commodity price spirals.
Technology and space
An emerging threat class that the Centre for Risk Studies is exploring in depth, including its impacts on the world economy.
Geopolitics and security
Examining the impacts of threat types in the Geopolitics and Security class, including conflict and social unrest.
Health and humanity
Considering the impacts of threat types in the health and humanity class, including human pandemics.
Natural catastrophe and climate
Researching the impacts of threat types in the Natural Catastrophe and Climate class, including climate change and extreme weather events.